The price keeps rising. Acrylonitrile turns losses into profits

After entering 2022, the cumulative new capacity of acrylonitrile is 390000 tons, the cumulative new capacity of ABS in the main downstream field is 350000 tons, and the increase in demand for acrylonitrile is less than 100000 tons. The pattern of supply exceeding demand in the industry is obvious. Since February, the acrylonitrile factory has continued to lose money, and the profitability of the factory has declined significantly.

In the middle of August, the price of acrylonitrile fell to a two-year low. The loss space of acrylonitrile factories exceeded 1000 yuan/ton. The pressure on factory costs was obvious. The manufacturers reduced their burden and production, and the price of acrylonitrile rose gradually. Since October, the price of mainstream acrylonitrile factories has gradually increased to 10600 yuan/ton, and the loss of manufacturers has gradually narrowed. Today, the offer of acrylonitrile mainstream factories in East China was again explored, and the spot price was raised to 10800 yuan/ton. Based on this price, and considering the income from by-products such as ammonium sulfate and by-product acetonitrile, the acrylonitrile factory turned losses into profits for the first time since February.

Although the price of acrylonitrile has risen gradually since the middle of August, the prices of propylene and synthetic ammonia, two major raw materials, fluctuated strongly, and the loss of acrylonitrile plants continued in the middle of October. According to statistics, compared with the middle of August, the price of propylene, the main raw material, increased by 750 yuan/ton, or 10.7%, and the price of synthetic ammonia, the other raw material, increased by 970 yuan/ton, or 30.7%. While the price of acrylonitrile rose by 21%, and the price of by-product acetonitrile fluctuated after falling. The factory continued to lose money in mid October. However, in the late October, the prices of propylene and synthetic ammonia, the main raw materials, fluctuated weakly, and the prices of acrylonitrile plants continued to rise, finally turning losses into profits.

Fundamentally, after the middle of August, the operating load rate of the acrylonitrile industry once dropped to a lower level of 6.5%. In October, although the load of the units in Jiangsu Selbang and Jilin Petrochemical increased slightly, the Tianchen Qixiang maintenance unit continued. Liaoning Jinfa's new unit failed to be put into production, and the operating load of the acrylonitrile industry increased slightly to a higher level of 70%. However, compared with previous years, the operating load rate is still relatively low.

From the perspective of the change of the operating load in the main downstream fields, the overhaul devices of the northeast big factory in the acrylic fiber industry were restarted at the end of September, and the industry started to maintain 70% above the level. The maintenance of some ABS devices was planned, and the industry started to maintain more than 8.5% above the level. The acrylamide plant devices operated steadily, and the operating load rate remained at the level of 70%. The operating load rate of the three downstream fields increased steadily compared with the end of September. With the increase of demand, the inventory level of acrylonitrile plants remained low. Under the pressure of manufacturers' costs, the price of acrylonitrile increased gradually.

In the short term, the Tianchen Qixiang maintenance device is expected to restart, and the new acrylonitrile device is expected to be put into production in the fourth quarter. In addition, the acrylonitrile and acrylic fiber units of Anqing Petrochemical are planned to be overhauled at the same time, focusing on the production progress of new downstream ABS units. Against the background of relatively loose supply in the industry, acrylonitrile factories are constantly looking for a new balance between supply and demand and profits. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will keep fluctuating along the cost line.